China Debates the Future Security Environment
file:///D|/NEW%20DATA%2003%20MAR%2012/MISC/Download.htm[3/9/2012 8:35:09 AM]
GEOPOLITICAL POWER CALCULATIONS
A UNIQUE ASPECT OF CHINA'S STRATEGIC ASSESSMENTS of the future security
environment is the "scientific" method used to predict power relations among the major
nations. Chinese ancient statecraft from the Warring States era focused on how a wise leader
made strategy according to the power of his state. Sun Zi warned that the outcome of war
depends on the correct assessment of power through calculations and estimates of enemy
strengths and weaknesses. Consequently, more so than most Western futurists, Chinese
authors want to forecast the future international status hierarchy. The means by which they
make such strategic assessments is through the measurement and comparison of
Comprehensive National Power (CNP).
CNP (zonghe guoli) refers to the combined overall conditions and strengths of a country in
numerous areas. During the Cold War and the U.S.-Soviet confrontation, a nation's power was
largely determined by military force, but in the current transition period, as the world moves
toward multipolarity, military might is no longer the main defining factor of strength. Instead,
elements such as economics and science and technology have become increasingly important
in the competition for power and influence in the world. An evaluation of current and future
strength requires the inclusion of a variety of factors, such as territory, natural resources,
military force, economic power, social conditions, domestic government, foreign policy, and
international influence. CNP is the aggregate of all these factors, as Deng Xiaoping stated: "In
measuring a country's national power, one must look at it comprehensively and from all
sides." (493)
Chinese assessments of CNP are done both qualitatively, in general discussions of country
strengths and weaknesses, as well as quantitatively, through the use of formulas to calculate
numerical values of CNP. China's forecasts of CNP reject using gross national product (GNP)
indexes or the measurement methods of national power used in the United States. Instead,
Chinese analysts have developed their own extensive index systems and equations for
assessing CNP. It will be seen that their analytical methods are not traditional Marxist-
Leninist dogma or Western social science but something unique to China.
Several assessments of the current and future CNP of a number of nations are provided in this
chapter, including estimations of the rank order in the future security environment of 2010 and
2020. The conflicting findings reflect the differences seen in chapters 1 and 2 about both the
rate at which the world is moving toward multipolarity and the rate of decline of U.S. national
power. For example, of the 20 authors introduced in this section, some authors write, "It is
certain that the five major powers will be the focus of the world, but the relative strengths of
the various poles will be unbalanced," (494) while others emphasize, "The strength and
political gaps among the five powers are gradually getting closer." (495) This "debate" about
CNP is also important to analysts of the RMA, because knowing a nation's CNP can
determine which side will win a war and which side will better implement an RMA. (496) To
sum up, the future CNP scores for major powers can help identify:
The status hierarchy in world politics
The power of potential rivals and potential partners
Who will best exploit the RMA
Which side will win a war.
Although numerous authors make predictions about future CNP, few provide detailed
