JULY 2025
Striving for Access, Security,
and Sustainability
Ukraine’s Transition to a Modern and
Decentralized Enery System
Romina Bandura and Alexander Romanishyn
Introduction
Since launching its full-scale invasion in February 2022, Russia has relentlessly attacked Ukraine’s
enery system, along with other infrastructure. In November 2024 alone, Russia red 350 missiles
and over 2,500 drones at the Ukrainian power grid. As a result of these attacks, the total damage to
the enery infrastructure—heating, power, and oil and gas—at the end of 2024 was estimated at $20.5
billion, while the cost to rebuild according to EU standards amounts to $67.8 billion. Combining the
occupied, destroyed, and damaged power capacities, Ukraine has lost a total of approximately 27
gigawatts (GW) of its pre-war installed capacity of 56.1 GW. Ukrainian citizens and businesses entered
recent winters with less than half of their power generation available, forcing authorities to introduce
restrictions on the supply of electricity. Emergency measures—such as repairing damaged generation
capacity and deploying thousands of backup diesel generators—have provided stopgaps to the current
dire situation.
Amid this crisis, enery decentralization as a stratey for survival has moved to the forefront of expert
discussions. Small, distributed power units, ranging from 5 to 100 megawatts (MW) each, are regarded
as the only way to prevent a nationwide blackout and ensure a stable electricity supply to people and
businesses. In addition, these small units are not an easy target for Russian missiles. Importantly,
decentralization also aligns with Ukraine’s long-term commitment to a more sustainable and balanced
enery mix. According to Ukrainian and international experts, rebuilding Ukraine’s grid on the old,
centralized model with outdated coal plants and dependence on imported fuel is not an option. Instead,
Ukraine has a unique opportunity to build a modern enery system relying on a more balanced and
ecient mix, strengthening its future enery security and economic resilience.
