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A US framework for assessing risk in critical mineral supply chains
July 2025
About this brief
Written by
Reed Blakemore
Director of research and
programs
Atlantic Council
Global Energy Center
Peter Engelke
Senior fellow
Atlantic Council
Scowcroft Center for
Strategy and Security
and
Global Energy Center
July 2025
Summary
The Scowcroft Center for
Strategy and Security works
to develop sustainable,
nonpartisan strategies to
address the most important
security challenges facing
the United States and its
allies and partners.
The Atlantic Council Global
Energy Center develops and
promotes pragmatic and
nonpartisan policy solutions
designed to advance global
energy security, enhance
economic opportunity, and
accelerate pathways to net-
zero emissions.
This issue brief assesses the US national and economic security risks within critical
mineral supply chains by examining challenges to resilient, secure, and well-supplied
supply chains. It guides US policymakers toward an eective strategy for managing
geopolitical risk amid future disruptions. Critical mineral risks to US national and
economic security should be evaluated on a mineral-by-mineral basis, improving the
deployment of political and financial capital. When an end-to-end domestic supply
of minerals cannot be achieved, strategically designed trade policies should ensure
access, security, and price stability across critical mineral supply chains. Finally, over-
the-horizon risks that will disrupt future supply chains, including export restrictions,
conflict, logistical chokepoints, and extreme weather events should be folded into
a wider critical mineral strategy.
Introduction
Minerals and metals enable the
modern economy. From cellular
phones to solar photovoltaics,
satellites to semiconductors, mineral-
based components are irreplaceable
pieces of nearly every modern-day
technology.Critical minerals range from
high-volume commodities such as nickel
and copper to niche elements such as
tungsten, indium, lithium, and cobalt
to rare-earth elements necessary for
permanent magnets and alloys. These
minerals pass from mine to finished
product through complex supply chains
that transform extracted minerals into
usable precursors (e.g., chemicals,
alloys) for manufactured technologies.
Numerous stakeholders, including
private-sector companies and public-
sector agencies, shape supply chains
based on market demand, profit margins,
and national security considerations.
The United States needs ever-more
minerals, metals, and materials. Yet
its inability to supply the entirety of its
mineral needs domestically creates
vulnerabilities. Global supply chains
are often controlled by unfriendly
countries. China dominates, either
due to the location of most midstream
processing (in China), the development of
upstream mining activity through Chinese
investment abroad, or via the ownership
of transshipment ports by Chinese firms.
As the bilateral relationship between
Beijing and Washington becomes more
competitive, US mineral dependency has
become a key source of leverage for
China.
The United States should carefully assess
its most significant vulnerabilities. The
margin of error is slim. The development
of new mines, alternative midstream
processing infrastructure, and component
manufacturing all take significant time
and investment to first establish and
then de-risk the overall supply chain.
Establishing secure supply chains
across all critical minerals will require
engagement with
reliable partners
abroad, within an increasingly fractured
