AUGUST 2025
An Open Door
AI Innovation in the Global South amid
Geostrategic Competition
By Noam Unger and Madeleine McLean
A
rticial intelligence (AI) is progressing at remarkable speed, with some experts estimating
that the technoloy will be performing many thousands of times better in 2028 than
it was at the start of 2025. Thought of as a machine system that can make “predictions,
recommendations, or decisions” based on a certain set of parameters with human-like reasoning,
AI is not a new technoloy, but recent developments in generative AI, which can create new content
by mimicking human speech and interaction, has captured widespread attention. Recognizing the very
real impact that this technoloy has—and will have—on every facet of society, governments and the
private sector have increasingly invested billions of dollars in conducting research and development
(R&D), building computing capacity, and attracting the best talent.
The economic impact of AI reaches into the trillions: According to the International Data Corporation,
AI will add $19.9 trillion to the global economy by 2030. However, these impacts are unlikely to
benet the world equally, and already there is a growing digital divide between the United States,
China, and Europe on the one hand, and the rest of the world on the other. If current development
trends continue, it is expected that only 3 percent of the projected AI economic benets will go to
Latin America, 6 percent to developed countries in Asia (excluding China), and a mere 8 percent to the
combined populations of “Africa, Oceania, and other Asian markets” (again, excluding China).
Given the economic benets that AI will bring to those countries that have the ability to harness it,
recent progress has spurred heated debate on several related fronts, including
▪ the ramications of only a few developed countries dictating AI development;
▪ the opportunities for open-source AI technologies to help close the digital divide;
