CNAS 核协议达成后与伊朗合作的可能性慢慢解冻2015年(16页)

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页数:16页

时间:2022-11-28

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上传者:战必胜
JANUARY 2015
POLICY BRIEF
Slow Thaw
Testing Possibilities for Cooperation with Iran After a Nuclear Deal
By Ilan Goldenberg, Jacob Stokes, and Nicholas A. Heras
T
he prospect of a nuclear deal between the
West and Iran has generated a robust debate
about whether such an agreement might generate
opportunities for U.S.-Iranian cooperation on a
broader set of issues. Any deal will address only
the Iranian nuclear proliferation threat; even if
successful, it will leave on the table many other
unresolved sources of tension that have hobbled
U.S.-Iranian relations since the Islamic Revolution.
e Obama administration has stressed that any
deal regarding the “nuclear le” remains separate
and distinct from the overall question of U.S. policy
toward Iran. e lead U.S. nuclear negotiator,
Ambassador Wendy R. Sherman, stated this clearly:
engagement on one issue does not require and will
not lead to silence on others.
1
Iranian Supreme
Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been equally
insistent upon compartmentalizing and isolating
the nuclear question from the broader U.S.-Iranian
relationship.
2
But these negative statements do not
determine what may happen in the days and years
aer an agreement.
To be sure, any thawing of the relationship would
face tremendous challenges. e two countries
have not had formal relations since 1979. In the
decades since, successive U.S. administrations
have designated Iran a state sponsor of terror-
ism, and imposed sanctions based on a range of
Iran’s activities apart from its nuclear prolifera-
tion. Both sides harbor long lists of grievances.
Iran resents American support for the Shah and
for Saddam Hussein during the Iran-Iraq War.
e United States remembers the takeover of the
U.S. embassy in Tehran and Iranian support for
militants in Iraq. Resentments on both sides mean
that powerful resistance in both political systems
would oppose cooperation. Moreover, Israeli and
Gulf partners, whose cooperation is vital for the
achievement of other U.S. interests in the region,
are likely to oppose any increase in U.S.-Iranian
cooperation.
Despite the challenges, however, there are a number
of areas where Iranian interests align with those
of the United States and its partners. Both have
interests in maritime security and in the free ow
of energy out of the Middle East. Both would prefer
a stable Afghanistan with Taliban inuence limited
to the greatest extent possible. Both oppose the
Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), and may be
willing to work together against it.
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