1 Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 3
Kateryna Stepanenko, Katherine Lawlor, Karolina Hird, Angela Howard, and Frederick
W. Kagan
August 3, 8:30pm ET
Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Russian forces are likely using Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in
Enerhodar to play on Western fears of a nuclear disaster in Ukraine, likely in an effort
to degrade Western will to provide military support to a Ukrainian counteroffensive.
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi said on August 3 that
Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP), which is currently occupied by Russian forces, is
“completely out of control” and that “every principle of nuclear safety has been violated” at the plant.
He warned that Russian forces are not respecting the physical integrity of the plant and pleaded with
Russia and Ukraine to quickly facilitate a visit of IAEA monitors to the complex. Russian Zaporizhia
Occupation Administration Head Evgeniy Balitskyi responded that the IAEA was welcome at the plant:
“We are ready to show how the Russian military guards it today, and how Ukraine, which receives
weapons from the West, uses these weapons, including drones, to attack the nuclear plant, acting like
a monkey with a grenade.”
Russian officials are framing Ukraine as irresponsibly using Western-
provided weapons and risking nuclear disaster to dissuade Western and other allied states from
providing additional military support to Ukraine’s looming southern counteroffensive.
Russian forces based around the NPP have attacked Ukrainian positions in Nikopol and elsewhere in
recent weeks, intentionally putting Ukraine in a difficult position—either Ukraine returns fire, risking
international condemnation and a nuclear incident (which Ukrainian forces are unlikely to do), or
Ukrainian forces allow Russian forces to continue firing on Ukrainian positions from an effective “safe
zone.” Ukrainian Mayor of Enerhodar Dmytro Orlov reported on August 3 that Russian forces launched
rockets on Enerhodar from neighboring villages to falsely accuse Ukrainian forces of shelling
Enerhodar and endangering the NPP.
ISW assessed on July 21 that Russian forces may be storing
heavy military equipment in the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in Enerhodar to protect it
from Ukrainian strikes.
Russian forces have also likely staged false flag attacks around Enerhodar since
early July, as ISW previously reported.
Russian forces likely set fire to the prison complex holding Ukrainian POWs in occupied
Donetsk Oblast but blamed Ukraine for an alleged precision strike using Western-
supplied military equipment, likely to deter additional Western military support to
Ukraine. The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that it has determined
that the Wagner Group deliberately set fire to the prison complex on July 28. This report is consistent
with the damage observable in Russian-provided video of the site. The GUR reported that Wagner
forces "mined” the building with unspecified flammable substances, which led to a rapid spread of fire
throughout the building.
Russian-provided footage and commercial satellite imagery from the colony
showed that the walls of the building were burned but still standing and did not reveal shell craters or
other indicators consistent with an artillery strike. ISW previously reported that imagery from the site
shows that the attack only damaged one building, did not collapse the walls of that building, and did
not leave any shell craters in the vicinity, very strongly suggesting that the destruction of the prison was
the result of either a precision strike or an internally planted incendiary or explosive.
