All years referred to are federal fiscal years, which run from October 1 to September 30 and are designated by the calendar year in which they end. All costs
are in nominal dollars (in other words, not adjusted for inflation). Numbers in the text, tables, and figures may not add up to totals because of rounding. In this
report, “cost” refers to budget authority, the amount that would need to be appropriated to implement the Administration’s plans.
APRIL | 2025
Summary
e Congressional Budget Oce updates its projec-
tions of the 10-year costs of nuclear forcesevery two
years. is report contains CBO’s projections for the
2025–2034period, which are based on the Department
of Defense’s (DoD’s) and the Department of Energy’s
(DOE’s) scal year2025budget requests, submitted in
March2024.
Costs of Current Plans
If carried out, DoD’s and DOE’s plans to operate, sus-
tain, and modernize current nuclear forces and purchase
new forces would cost a total of $946billion over the
2025–2034period, or an average of about $95billion a
year, CBO estimates.
at total includes $357billion to operate and sustain
current and future nuclear forces and other supporting
activities; $309billion to modernize strategic and tactical
nuclear delivery systems and the weapons they carry;
$72billion to modernize facilities and equipment for
the nuclear weapons laboratory complex; $79billion to
modernize command, control, communications, and
early-warning systems; and $129billion to cover potential
additional costs in excess of projected budgeted amounts
estimated using historical cost growth (see Figure 1).
How Costs Have Changed
CBO’s current estimate of costs for the 2025–2034
period is 25percent (or $190billion) larger than its
2023estimate of $756billion, which covered the
2023–2032period. Of that amount, $157billion comes
from dierences in CBO’s current and 2023estimates
of budgeted amounts for nuclear forces, and $33bil-
lion comes from dierences in the agency’s estimates of
potential additional costs based on historical cost growth.
Of the $157billion increase in budgeted amounts,
59percent (or $93billion) is projected to occur from
2025 to 2032—the span of years that overlap in both
estimates. e increase during those overlapping years is
the result of higher costs for some programs, primarily
for developing and elding the new Sentinel intercon-
tinental ballistic missile system, including moderniz-
ing silos and other infrastructure; modernizing DoD’s
command, control, communications, and early-warning
systems; and modernizing DOE’s production facili-
ties. e remaining 41percent (or $65billion) of the
$157billion increase in budgeted amounts arises because
the 10-year period covered by the current estimate begins
and ends two years later than the period covered by the
previousestimate.
Background
Nuclear weapons have been an important component of
U.S. national security since they were developed during
World War II. During the Cold War, nuclear forces were
central to U.S. defense policy, and a large arsenal was built.
Since that time, nuclear forces have gured less promi-
nently in defense policy than conventional forces have,
and for several decades the United States did not develop
and eld new nuclear weapons or delivery systems, choos-
ing instead to sustain or extend the life of existing ones.
But the nation’s current nuclear forces are reaching the end
of their service life, and some delivery systems may not be
capable of having their service life extended further.
U.S. nuclear forces consist of submarines that launch
ballistic missiles (SSBNs), land-based intercontinental
ballistic missiles (ICBMs), long-range bomber aircraft,
shorter-range tactical aircraft carrying bombs, and the
nuclear warheads that those delivery systems carry. Over
the next two decades, essentially all those systems will
have to be refurbished or replaced with new systems if
Projected Costs of U.S. Nuclear
Forces, 2025 to 2034
