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Project on American Justice Fireside Chat Summary
1 The PAJ team is using this scenario as a baseline for the conversations and does not assume that this outcome will occur.
Rather, we are posing this scenario as one of many possible futures in 2040. In addition, this scenario grows and adapts after each
reside chat based on the ndings from the discussion.
The Future of Corrections: Leadership and Culture
Overview
The CNA Center for Justice Research and Innovation’s 2024 Project on American Justice (PAJ) focuses on the future of
corrections based on current research and trends. To support this eort, CNA is working with several leading subject
matter experts (SMEs) and senior advisors with research and practitioner experience in the corrections eld.
In June 2024, PAJ conducted its fourth of several “reside chats” with these experts to discuss leadership and culture
in corrections. Specically, PAJ used a futures analysis framework to examine the social, technological, economic,
environmental, and political (STEEP) factors that may inuence corrections and the criminal justice system in the future.
The PAJ team aims to use this framework to identify opportunities to mitigate risks and promote successes.
To support this analysis, the PAJ team identied several overarching STEEP factors based on research and current
trends. Social factors include Generation Y and the aging population, expanding diversity, and urbanization throughout
megacities, regions, and corridors. Technological factors include growth in applied articial intelligence, use of robotics,
and adoption of automated vehicles. Economic factors include the increasing US national debt and widening wealth
inequality. Environmental factors include climate action failures and surges in ecomigration and climate refugees.
Political factors include balkanization and a shift in global superpowers. Using the STEEP factors, the PAJ team created the
following 2040 future scenario:
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In 2040, the number of adults outnumbers the number of children for the rst time in US history, and urbanized
megapolitan areas exist nationwide, including mega areas Phoenix-Tucson, the Texas Triangle, Columbus-Cincinnati,
Tampa-Orlando, and Washington-Baltimore-Richmond. Mega areas have adopted integrated justice systems with
some jurisdictions covering multiple states. As a result of the rapid growth, cities are experiencing a housing crisis and
access to jobs is a growing concern. In these areas and throughout the country, articial intelligence is commonplace.
Automated vehicles traverse streets, and robots are replacing the workforce. Advanced technologies are helping
maintain safety and security within public safety facilities as well as providing training and educational services
through increased global and community connections. The US national debt has reached historic highs, limiting
our government’s ability to invest in new priorities. Communities remain underresourced. Economic instability and
climate action failure have increased tensions between states, and there is no longer any faith in local and federal
governments. Despite limited resources, correctional facilities are adopting multidisciplinary approaches in
their rehabilitative processes. Globally, the US has lost its place as the top superpower and has been surpassed
by China, while the number of foreign-born individuals in the US is at a historic high and has created a nationally
diverse populace where no racial majority exists.
Using this future-state scenario as a starting point, the PAJ team identied potential risks and opportunities regarding
leadership and culture in corrections, as well as steps to take now to mitigate those risks and promote successes. A
summary of the discussion continues in the following sections.
IIM-2024-U-038037-Final
Approved for public release.
