ITIF:法国核计划的教训(2025) 27页

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时间:2025-09-03

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上传者:PASHU
itif.org
Lessons From Frances Nuclear Program
ROBIN GASTER | SEPTEMBER 2025
France has embarked on an ambitious program to build at least six new large nuclear reactors,
applying lessons from recent overruns and delays. While success is far from guaranteed, there are
important lessons for the United States as it seeks to jump-start its own nuclear sector through
recent ambitious executive orders.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
A U.S. nuclear strategy must have strong bipartisan support. Nuclear designs often take
decades, and private investors need certainty. We cannot afford to change the strategy
with every new administration.
The United States cannot and should not replicate Frances highly centralized
government structure and dependence on EDF as a single national champion for energy.
It must find alternative solutions to the functional problems this model addresses.
Existing fragmented government structuresboth inside and beyond DOEmust be
systematically reorganized into a coherent and consistent whole that is able to demand
(and provide) full accountability and oversight.
A large order book is the key to cost reductionbut will be hard to build in the United
States, where other sources of energy are highly competitive, there is no national security
reason to build nuclear (unlike in France), and markets are fragmented.
France is highly focused on large reactors, but that is a historical legacy, not a well-
grounded strategy. U.S. advantages in SMRs could offer a much better alternative.
Construction support can be provided through federal loans at cost, but further de-risking
is needed to encourage private investment in extremely long-range and high-risk projects.
The U.S. model of providing tax credits as effectively indefinite operating subsidies is
flawed. There are better alternatives that connect energy sources to the market more
effectively, such as contracts for difference.
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这篇文章来自信息技术与创新基金会,主要探讨了法国核电发展历程,尤其是弗拉曼维尔3号反应堆项目的失败教训,以及法国在EPR2项目上的改进措施,并为美国核能发展提供了经验教训。 1. **法国核电发展概况**:法国正在推进一项雄心勃勃的计划,至少建造六座新的大型核反应堆。法国总统马克龙在2022年呼吁到2035年建造六座新的1.6吉瓦反应堆,并提出了一系列相关举措,包括供应链、废物处理和小型模块化反应堆等方面。 2. **弗拉曼维尔3号反应堆项目**:该项目是法国核电发展中的一个重大失败案例。从2007年开始建设,预算从最初的33亿欧元飙升至237亿欧元,工期延误了12年。2024年12月才实现并网,目前仍未达到满功率运行。其失败原因包括技术过度自信、组织功能失调、工业专业知识流失等。 3. **EPR2反应堆项目**:旨在吸取弗拉曼维尔3号的教训,预计2028年在彭利浇筑第一罐混凝土,2038年商业运行。采取了一系列改进措施,如简化设计、发展劳动力、重组公私部门、提供融资支持、进行全生命周期支持、选择现有厂址等。 4. **法国核战略的其他方面**:包括通过EPR2反应堆进行大规模发电、通过小型模块化反应堆实现分布式能源、以及长期的聚变技术研究。还涉及核燃料循环管理,强调国内供应链,以减少对进口铀的依赖,并通过后处理回收材料。 5. **对美国的启示**:美国在发展核能时面临着与法国不同的挑战,如缺乏高度集中的政府结构和国家冠军企业。美国需要制定统一的核战略,获得两党长期支持,明确政府结构和权力,解决订单簿和成本降低问题,培养劳动力,提供贷款融资,降低风险,并改进运营补贴方式。

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